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#21 Metsfan980

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Posted 07 February 2011 - 04:23 PM

Similar to when Jose Reyes was suspected of using HGH last year. I think the rumors came out around the time his hammy was acting up and he was out for way much longer than initially expected. I guess one would naturally be a bit less scrutinizing if a player is using it to overcome an injury, but given the banning of the substance, the question is where do you draw the line?


If a player is using a substance illegally, then they are using it illegally--no matter what they're reason for using the drug illegally is or was.

If a player uses HGH illegally while recovering from an injury to expedite their recovery, then they are violating the same rules and laws that a player using HGH violates when they are trying to enhance their endurance.
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#22 Doc

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Posted 07 February 2011 - 08:20 PM

HGH has only one legal use at the present time, children with a human growth hormone deficiency. This is a very rare condition. To date no randomized controlled trial has shown any benefit of using HGH to help promote healing. This is not to say that one day it might, but like many hormone therapies, I suspect that the risks will outweigh the benefits. This is the reason that HGH and steroids are illegal to possess and use without both a valid prescription and a documented indication.
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#23 ils

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Posted 07 February 2011 - 09:46 PM

http://www.amazinave...ittes-hall-pass

Great post about Pettitte and his PED use linked above.

My favorite quote:
"Danny Knobler of CBS Sports caused a stir last year when he wrote a column in which he said he wouldn't vote for certain unnamed Hall of Fame candidates because he believed they had built their credentials through "cheating." His evidence? "Itís just strong suspicion, or word of mouth. Itís nothing I can prove, and nothing Iíd feel professionally comfortable writing in a story." But when admitted "cheat" Andy Pettitte retired, he discussed his Hall of Fame chances at CBSSports.com by focusing on his postseason success. Knobler did not once mention PEDs."

Kobler was the prick who started PED rumors on Bagwell for no reason, and doesn't even mention them on Pettitte. I swear, it sometimes seems 80% of professional sports writers need to be put down.

#24 ils

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Posted 07 February 2011 - 09:48 PM

Kinda hilarious that Bonds and Pettitte will be on the ballot at the same time.

If someone votes for Pettitte and not Bonds, it means that it's okay to cheat, as long as you aren't historically great.

#25 birtelcom

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Posted 08 February 2011 - 02:17 PM

Kevin Brown (77.2 WAR), Rafael Palmeiro (75.5 WAR), Mark McGwire (70.6 WAR) and Jeff Bagwell (83.9) all had more productive careers than Pettitte (66.9 WAR) but none of them have done very well on the balloting (Brown was already eliminated from further hall of fame votes). Three of these players have already been named as users (McGwire even admitted that he used something) and one, Bagwell, escaped public scrutiny but has results that suggest a disclosed knowledge throughout the media.

Also, Pettitte doesn't deserve to be in the hall of fame if Larry Walker (72.2 WAR) and Edgar Martinez (71.6) fail to make the cut. They were more productive players but they are marred by their home stadium and position, respectively.


I agree about Pettitte's limitations as an HOF candidate, but I would point out that I'm skeptical as to the usefulness of Wins Above Replacement (WAR) for purposes of comparing pitchers to hitters. The WAR awarded to pitchers in general is very dependent on how the WAR formula divides up the value of outs between pitchers and fielder -- a division that is more art than science because there is no real objective answer to the question of how much of a relative contribution a pitcher or his fielders makes to outs (strikeouts involve zero contribution by the fielders course, but every other out is harder to judge).

Different WAR formulas do this division differently. For example, the Fangraphs version of WAR rates Pettitte more highly than the baseball-reference version. Fangraphs has Andy with the 10th highest career WAR as a pitcher over the period 1980-2010. B-ref ranks him 19th in WAR as a pitcher over that same period. B-ref, but not Fangraphs, has the following guys with more career WAR as a pitcher than Pettitte: Wells, Saberhagen, Halladay (thorugh 2010), Cone, Steib, Appier, Hershiser. I think Fangraphs rates Andy more highly because Andy allowed an unusually high batting average on balls in play (BABIP) for an elite pitcher (.312 over his career). Fangraphs' WAR formula, unlike Baseball-Reference's, in effect assigns a lot of the blame for that high BABIP to the defense.

The point I'm trying to make (though I've meandered) is that pitching WAR is based on some assumptions that are not relevant to WAR for hitters and thus I personally find comparing WAR for hitters against WAR for pitchers a bit "apples vs. oranges". I find WAR quite helpful (at least as a starting point when combined with other analysis) for comparing starting pitchers to starting pitchers, or shortstops to shortstops, etc. But I'm wary of cross-position comparisons, especially pitcher vs. hitter. Pettitte faced about 13,000 batters over his regular season career, Edgar Martinez had about 8,700 PAs in his career. Edgar was a truly great hitter, Andy was a very good pitcher. Which one was "more productive" or provided his team with "more value" , with their utterly different roles in the game, is a really, really hard question to resolve objectively that just looking at their respective WAR numbers doesn't necessarily resolve.

#26 birtelcom

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Posted 08 February 2011 - 10:59 PM

It's true. But he did pitch for the Yankees, and he ended up being 19-10 over 263 innings in the postseason with 5 WS rings. That might count a lot to some voters.

Joe Posnanski, discusses, including quoting a thoughtful Bill James observation, the question of how much credit a player should get, in Hall of Fame type discussions, for his post-season work. http://joeposnanski....e-junction.html. Before 1969, post-season play meant only the World Series, and other than a few Yankees, nobody really racked up that many post-season games. Now that there are three rounds of post-season games every season, and 27% of teams make the post-season (as opposed to 12.5% in the old 8-team leagues), post-season contributions can add up. And there is a certain logic to giving a player more credit for performing well in a post-season game than in a plain old regular season game -- given that the consequences of any particular post-season game are enormous compared to most regular season games. But as James points out, the long history of limited post-season baseball didn't really equip us with a set of traditions that balance regular and post-season play post-season contributions in a way that might be appropriate today. Is it unfair to give players extra credit for post-season performance when the opportunity to perform in the post-season is so unevenly divided among players? Is it any more "unfair" then giving a player who went through his career with few injuries more credit than one who suffered a bunch of injuries and thus didn't get a chance to play as much? As Met fans, and often Yankee-despisers, we at THR may be less inclined to give players major credit for big playoff game numbers -- after all, that's likely to benefit Yankee players and not Mets players. But it's still an interesting issue to consider.

#27 Metsfan980

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Posted 09 February 2011 - 02:30 AM

I agree about Pettitte's limitations as an HOF candidate, but I would point out that I'm skeptical as to the usefulness of Wins Above Replacement (WAR) for purposes of comparing pitchers to hitters. The WAR awarded to pitchers in general is very dependent on how the WAR formula divides up the value of outs between pitchers and fielder -- a division that is more art than science because there is no real objective answer to the question of how much of a relative contribution a pitcher or his fielders makes to outs (strikeouts involve zero contribution by the fielders course, but every other out is harder to judge).

Different WAR formulas do this division differently. For example, the Fangraphs version of WAR rates Pettitte more highly than the baseball-reference version. Fangraphs has Andy with the 10th highest career WAR as a pitcher over the period 1980-2010. B-ref ranks him 19th in WAR as a pitcher over that same period. B-ref, but not Fangraphs, has the following guys with more career WAR as a pitcher than Pettitte: Wells, Saberhagen, Halladay (thorugh 2010), Cone, Steib, Appier, Hershiser. I think Fangraphs rates Andy more highly because Andy allowed an unusually high batting average on balls in play (BABIP) for an elite pitcher (.312 over his career). Fangraphs' WAR formula, unlike Baseball-Reference's, in effect assigns a lot of the blame for that high BABIP to the defense.

The point I'm trying to make (though I've meandered) is that pitching WAR is based on some assumptions that are not relevant to WAR for hitters and thus I personally find comparing WAR for hitters against WAR for pitchers a bit "apples vs. oranges". I find WAR quite helpful (at least as a starting point when combined with other analysis) for comparing starting pitchers to starting pitchers, or shortstops to shortstops, etc. But I'm wary of cross-position comparisons, especially pitcher vs. hitter. Pettitte faced about 13,000 batters over his regular season career, Edgar Martinez had about 8,700 PAs in his career. Edgar was a truly great hitter, Andy was a very good pitcher. Which one was "more productive" or provided his team with "more value" , with their utterly different roles in the game, is a really, really hard question to resolve objectively that just looking at their respective WAR numbers doesn't necessarily resolve.


I intentionally used the Fangraphs version of WAR for the reasons you mentioned--it generally gives pitchers a higher value, which neutralizes the comparison a bit.

It's not a perfect measurement for comparing players with different roles (pitcher vs. hitter for instance), but it is the best measurement I currently know of (even Winshares, when they were accepted, tended to favor batters).

Regardless, I believe that most stats that evaluate a player's overall value will almost certainly favor Kevin Brown over Andy Pettitte and will certainly do the same with future ballot-member Roger Clemens. Unfortunately, as already noted, Brown was already eliminated from further ballots and Clemens will probably have a short tenure on the ballot before the voters banish his opportunity. Pettitte, however, exits the game, we think, as a perpetrator of the same misdeeds and much more rosy reputation.

I think, for the situtation you proposed at the end of your post, the discrepency in comparing the number of plate appearances that batters and pitchers are involved in can be partially resolved with a couple of thoughts:

1. Pitchers will face "easy outs;" whether this be the eighth hitter in the lineup or the opposing pitcher, the pitcher in question will have a certain proportion of his career matchups dedicated to situations that result in an out at a far greater percentage than the average plate appearance. Batters probably have this sort of advantage less frequently (though I have no data to back this claim up), assuming that pitchers who lose these matchups at a far greater percentage than the average pitcher will probably be pulled from the game.

2. Pitchers have eight teammates on the field supporting their cause, retiring the batter, whereas batters do not necessarily have a partner on the field (baserunners could count, I suppose, though I'm not sure if they're as helpful as fielders) and, instead, have nine opponents to overcome in their quest to reach base.
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#28 Doc

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Posted 09 February 2011 - 07:51 PM

2. Pitchers have eight teammates on the field supporting their cause, retiring the batter, whereas batters do not necessarily have a partner on the field (baserunners could count, I suppose, though I'm not sure if they're as helpful as fielders) and, instead, have nine opponents to overcome in their quest to reach base.



I didn't think you were old enough to be in this movie:



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#29 gak29

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Posted 09 February 2011 - 08:02 PM

I didn't think you were old enough to be in this movie:




ZOMG THERE WUZ BLOOOD!!! I AM UP ENDED BY THIS VIDEO DUMAND ITS REEMOVAL!
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#30 Metsfan980

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Posted 10 February 2011 - 01:00 AM

I didn't think you were old enough to be in this movie:




I never saw that film, it is on my list of films to see, so I had never seen that scene--that sounds weird--before. Good call, that scene is similar to my second obseveration. Which leads to my third observation:

3. Pitchers do not have the added pressure of being assaulted by teammates in the dugout. As members of the defensive team, nine against one batter, they do not have to worry about their individual failure during a plate appearance dramatically affecting the team's ability to win; batters have this concern, and, thus, face more pressure during each of their plate appearances than a pitcher would face.
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#31 StrawberryFieldsForever

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Posted 15 February 2011 - 10:34 AM

Kinda hilarious that Bonds and Pettitte will be on the ballot at the same time


It's actually even more interesting than that. I believe Biggio, Schilling, Bonds, Sosa, Piazza, and Clemens will all be on the ballot in 2012.

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#32 BelieveinNYM

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Posted 15 February 2011 - 11:00 AM

It's actually even more interesting than that. I believe Biggio, Schilling, Bonds, Sosa, Piazza, and Clemens will all be on the ballot in 2012.


If Clemens isn't banned by then.
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#33 StrawberryFieldsForever

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Posted 16 February 2011 - 03:12 AM

Actually I want to see Piazza and Clemens inducted to the HoF at the same ceremony, and see the look on Mike's face when the Feds turning up half-way through and cart Clemens off to jail, like they do in those movies where the police turn up during a wedding ceremony and throw the groom in the back of a squad car.

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#34 birtelcom

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Posted 17 February 2011 - 04:35 PM

It's actually even more interesting than that. I believe Biggio, Schilling, Bonds, Sosa, Piazza, and Clemens will all be on the ballot in 2012.

Most Career Wins Above Replacement (WAR), MLB Players Whose Final Season was 2007:
Barry Bonds 171.8
Roger Clemens 128.4
Curt Schilling 69.7
Craig Biggio 66.2
Kenny Lofton 65.3
Sammy Sosa 59.7
Mike Piazza 59.1
Julio Franco 40.6

Over the eight-year period from 1992-1999, WAR has Ken Griffey, Jr. and Frank Thomas as the only players who produced more value in the American League than Kenny Lofton. Note that Piazza is comparatively low on this list because catchers are always low in WAR compared to other position players -- it''s just not physically possible for them to play as many career games as other position players so they can't accumulate as many Wins Above Replacement. WAR rates Piazza the sixth most valuable catcher of all time, just behind Yogi, and the most valuable hitting catcher of all time by a huge margin -- it's his below-average defense as rated by WAR that brings him down to mere superstar level.

To bring this back to the original thread, Andy P. will only first appear on the HOF ballot three years after the above-listed group debut on the ballot. So he will only share the ballot with those above who remain on the ballot in 2015, because they have by then been neither voted in nor dropped off. I'm still guessing that no matter what the courts do with Bonds and Clemens, and no matter how many PED treatments they took, and no matter how unpleasant they each have been as public personalities, both will be in the Hall before Andy hits the ballot.

#35 Metsfan980

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Posted 14 March 2011 - 09:31 PM

I just noticed the subhed of this thread; very funny.
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